‘Moana 2’ Opening Signals Brutal Year-End Battle With ‘Mufasa’

Scrooge-like skeptics of theatrical film ought to get right with the holiday spirit.

Disney’s “Moana 2” delivered a supercharged Thanksgiving weekend, opening to $225 million over its five-day window — a record that bested Disney’s “Frozen 2” in 2019 by as much as $100 million — while Universal’s “Wicked” assisted with an extra $118 million in its sophomore weekend.

Combined with additional good turnout from Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” the result for the long weekend was another all-timer.

There’s no doubt Disney is elated after its incredible summer run with “Inside Out 2,” the highest-grossing animated film of all time, and “Deadpool & Wolverine,” the new record holder for R-rated films at the box office. Even better: “Mufasa: The Lion King,” a prequel to 2019’s photorealistic remake of the animated staple, is due Dec. 20.

The newer “Lion King” was another box office staple, earning close to the $1.7 billion global haul of “Inside Out 2.” If “Moana 2” bested 2019-level turnout, it’s tough to see any outcome beyond “Mufasa” leading the stampede of films aiming for end-of-year glory.

The most immediate competition for “Mufasa” is Paramount’s third “Sonic the Hedgehog” outing, which should follow the modest success the first two films met in 2020 and 2022. But the gaming staple hasn’t done anywhere close to Disney family-favorite numbers, nor has it bowed in a holiday window, putting it in uncharted territory.

Still, “Sonic” is in a better position than Angel Studios’ “Homestead,” with which it shares the same release date, an odd choice for a film whose themes of societal collapse and home defense would have been fitting for the weekend after the U.S. presidential election.

The actual Christmas holiday is bizarrely skewed toward adults. Leading the pack are A24’s “Babygirl,” which places Nicole Kidman in a CEO-employee tryst; Searchlight’s “A Complete Unknown,” which stars Timothée Chalamet as a young Bob Dylan; and Focus Features’ update to vampire classic “Nosferatu.”

That latter film is another expectedly bloody outing for filmmaker Robert Eggers, who pivoted from directing Alexander Skarsgård in Viking epic “The Northman” to brother Bill Skarsgård as the titular monster, some years after Skarsgård’s turn as killer clown Pennywise in two “It” films led Warner Bros. to R-rated box office glory.

Between “Mufasa” and “Sonic” leading family audiences and Christmas’ R-rated offerings for adults needing a break from younger relatives, MGM’s “The Fire Inside” will face an uphill battle to stand out, not unlike its subject Claressa Shields, the first American to win consecutive boxing gold medals. Critical reception is unanimously positive, giving “Fire” a chance to garner some audience.

However, the film has been sitting on Amazon’s shelf in a completed state for two years now, a sign it hasn’t been a big priority for the tech-adjacent studio, especially when it could have been released ahead of the actual games this summer.

Paramount has put off wide releases for “September 5” and “Better Man” to January, giving them space away from the December ringleaders. Similarly, Sony’s R-rated “Kraven the Hunter” will get a head start before “Mufasa” and “Sonic,” where it may not fare better against top-shelf competition than October’s “Venom: The Last Dance” performed as the worst of any of Sony’s “Venom” films, its best licensed Marvel IP after “Spider-Man.” Still, the appetite for more adult-oriented Marvel films may remain strong after “Deadpool” this summer.

The holiday season is always competitive, but Disney’s return to commanding the box office will make this December a particularly brutal matchup for any film hoping to be king.