Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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Oscars Commentary (Updated Dec. 6, 2024): We’ve officially entered the thick of awards season, and it feels like the Oscars playoffs are in full swing. The glitz, glamour, and chaos kicked off with the Gotham Awards, setting the tone for what promises to be an unpredictable and heated race. The East Coast ceremony delivered the first shock of the season when A24’s dark dramedy “A Different Man,” starring Sebastian Stan, took home the top prize over the presumptive favorite and buzzy contender “Anora.”
One day later, the New York Film Critics Circle added to the drama by naming Brady Corbet’s historical epic “The Brutalist” as Best Film. This further complicated the narrative when it was nearly shut out of the Independent Spirit Awards the following day, where “Anora” led the nomination tally again alongside the spring indie sleeper “I Saw the TV Glow.”
Meanwhile, the National Board of Review threw its weight behind Universal’s undeniably popular blockbuster “Wicked,” giving Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande an extra prize. That came with acting prizes for Daniel Craig’s work in the cerebral LGBTQ drama “Queer” and Nicole Kidman’s work as a sexually charged CEO in “Babygirl.”
Next up is the Los Angeles Film Critics Awards on Sunday (predictions below) and the Golden Globe nominations on Monday. We’re all just trying to decipher what it could all mean. The newest Oscar projections are also listed, with category pages updated throughout the weekend.
Los Angeles Film Critics Predictions
Best Film: “All We Imagine as Light”
(alt: “The Brutalist” or “Wicked”)
Director: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
(alt: Sean Baker, “Anora” or RaMell Ross, “Nickel Boys”)
Lead Performance: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist” and Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
(alt: Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl” or Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”)
Supporting Performance: Yura Borisov, “Anora” and Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
(alt: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain” or Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”)
Screenplay: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
(alt. “Anora” or “A Real Pain”)
Cinematography: “Nickel Boys”
(alt. “Dune: Part Two” or “The Girl with the Needle”)
Editing: “The Substance”
(alt. “The Brutalist” or “Challengers”)
Music Score: “The Brutalist”
(alt. “Queer” or “The Wild Robot”)
Production Design: “The Brutalist”
(alt. “Nosferatu” or “Wicked”)
Foreign Language Film: “I’m Still Here”
(alt. “All We Imagine as Light” or “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”)
Documentary/Non-Fiction Film: “No Other Land”
(alt. “Black Box Diaries” or “Daughters”)
Animation: “Flow”
(alt. “Memoir of a Snail” or “The Wild Robot”)
New Generation Award: RaMell Ross, “Nickel Boys”
(alt. Malcolm Washington, “The Piano Lesson” or Alessandra Lacorazza Samudio, “In the Summer”)
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
“Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
“Sing Sing” (A24)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Director
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Edward Berger
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Jon M. Chu ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist” (A24) -
Actor
Adrien Brody ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Daniel Craig
“Queer” (A24)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features) -
Actress
Image Credit: Universal Pictures Cynthia Erivo ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Angelina Jolie
“Maria” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon) -
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: A24 Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin ***
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Clarence Maclin
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Denzel Washington
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) -
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Parisa Taghizadeh Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Ariana Grande
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Saoirse Ronan
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) -
Original Screenplay
“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Mike Leigh
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
Mohammad Rasoulof -
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Amazon MGM / Orion “Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox -
Animated Feature
Image Credit: Janus Films and Sideshow “Flow” (Janus Films and Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) *** -
Production Design
Image Credit: Niko Tavernise “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Cinematography
Image Credit: Aidan Monaghan “The Brutalist” (A24)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features) -
Costume Design
Image Credit: GC Images “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Film Editing
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) -
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Matt Infante
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
“A Different Man” (A24)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Sound
Image Credit: Everett Collection “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Visual Effects
Image Credit: AACTA “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) -
Original Score
Image Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features. © 2 “The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) -
Original Song
Image Credit: Universal Pictures / DreamWorks
“Forbidden Road” from “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
“Harper and Will Go West” from “Will and Harper” (Netflix) -
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Johan Grimonprez, Ambroise Boimbo, Robert Lebeck “Dahomey” (Mubi)
“Daughters” (Netflix) ***
“No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films) -
International Feature
Image Credit: CredIt: Alile Dara Onawale/ Videofilmes, Venice Film Festival “Dahomey” from Senegal (Mubi)
“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon) -
More Information (All Categories)
Image Credit: Getty 2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) 2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
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Awards Circuit Columns and Podcast Archives (2024-2025)
Image Credit: Matt Sayles for Variety Awards Circuit Film Columns, Features, and News Exclusives
- Studios Want Oscar Recognition for ‘Inside Out 2’ and ‘The Wild Robot’ Beyond Animated Feature. Will Voters Embrace Them?
- ‘Conclave’ Prays for Oscar Attention: How Do Religious Movies Perform With Academy Voters?
- ‘Anora’ and ‘Challengers’ Get Awards Boosts From Gotham Nominations in Year Without Oscar Frontrunners
- Has Netflix’s Long Journey to Win Best Picture Finally Arrived With ‘Emilia Pérez?’
- Art of the Oscar Sequel: Will the Academy Embrace Multiple Second Installments?
Awards Circuit Podcast (Film Season)
- Denis Villeneuve on ‘Dune 3,’ Amy Adams’ Oscar Snub for ‘Arrival’ and the Secret Rom-Com He Wrote
- Ryan Reynolds Says Hosting the Oscars ‘Would Be a Dream,’ Talks Academy’s ‘Greatest’ Snub and ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Success
- ‘Thelma’ Star June Squibb on Potentially Being the Oldest Oscar Nominee, Threatening Ryan Reynolds and Admiring Adam Sandler
- Isabella Rossellini on ‘Conclave’ and How She Almost Didn’t Get ‘Death Becomes Her’ Role Because the Studio ‘Wanted Someone More Famous, More Established’
- John Magaro on How Being an Extra in Steven Spielberg’s ‘Munich’ Helped Him Prepare for ‘September 5’: ‘It’s About the Responsibility of Journalists’
- Saoirse Ronan On Feeling Responsible for Protecting Young Actors in Hollywood and Her Election Fears: ‘Please Don’t Be on the Fence’
